At the recent Automechanika Breakfast, Paul-Roux de Kock, Chief Analytics Officer at Lightstone, painted a compelling picture of an automotive industry in the midst of profound transformation.
Drawing on extensive market data and analytical insights, the presentation highlighted the evolving dynamics shaping both global and South African vehicle markets—and what these shifts mean for manufacturers, retailers, and consumers.
The backdrop to the discussion was the global recovery in new vehicle sales following the disruptions of the Covid-19 pandemic. Markets such as the United States (US), Canada, Australia, the United Kingdom (UK, and China have tracked their climb back toward, and in some cases above, 2019 averages. The patterns differ across regions, but the common thread is that supply chain bottlenecks, economic pressure, and shifting consumer expectations have permanently altered the way the industry behaves. South Africa mirrors this global trend, though with a local twist: recovery has been slower and more uneven, shaped by economic headwinds, rising interest rates, and unique market preferences.
A long-term view of South Africa’s new vehicle market—from 1980 to 2025—reveals just how cyclical the industry has always been. Periods of strong growth are interspersed with downturns linked to broader economic conditions. More recently, the new light vehicle segment has shown clear sensitivity to changes in the prime interest rate. As borrowing grows more expensive, sales soften, illustrating how closely vehicle purchasing decisions are tied to consumer affordability.
Affordability concerns have been further complicated by rising vehicle prices. Lightstone’s weighted average price tracking underscores a steady upward shift across vehicle categories, putting additional pressure on buyers. At the same time, consumers are faced with an expanding array of choices. The number of unique vehicle makes available in South Africa has increased significantly over the past three decades, with 2024 and 2025 reflecting some of the most diverse product offerings ever seen. Much of this increase is driven by new entrants from Asia—particularly China—disrupting the competitive landscape with a mix of affordability, technology, and aggressive brand positioning.
This diversification is reflected in the market share data. While established brands like Toyota, Volkswagen, Hyundai, and Ford continue to show strong performance, newcomers such as Chery and Haval have rapidly climbed the rankings. The shifting composition of top-performing manufacturers demonstrates the openness of South African consumers to new brands when value, design, and technology align with their needs.
The nationality of brands and the countries of assembly have shifted alongside these trends. Chinese brands and Chinese-built vehicles have gained significant traction, while traditional leaders such as Japan, Germany, and South Africa itself continue to play a substantial role. The interplay between brand origin and assembly location highlights the increasingly globalised nature of the automotive supply chain.
Looking ahead, the Lightstone forecast for new light vehicle sales through 2026 points to cautious optimism. While economic challenges persist, the appetite for personal mobility remains strong, and the industry continues to innovate in response to consumer demands. Data-driven insights, predictive analytics, and market intelligence—core strengths of Lightstone—will play an increasingly vital role as businesses navigate uncertainty and position themselves for growth.
In a sector characterised by rapid change, the Automechanika Breakfast reinforced the importance of understanding the story behind the numbers. As the automotive landscape continues to evolve, one thing is clear: agility, insight, and consumer focus will determine the industry’s next chapter.
